A mere eight weeks in the past when Morgan Rogers was standing on the Sunderland turf, appearing bewildered while the Villa manager scolded him for failing to anticipate a through-ball. Back then, as the club went six without a win, it wasn't clear whether his performances were an indicator or a cause of Villa's more general malaise.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
On Sunday, though, the touchline reaction proved to be decidedly more positive. As Rogers drilled in his second to restore Villa's lead, the Spanish tactician ripped off his jacket, opened his arms and bellowed. Villa were on their way to ten wins in a row , having failed to win any of their first six matches, now sit just three points off pace-setters Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Serious Hopefuls?
This is an exceptionally difficult question to address. The historical record, the perceived status of the club, indicates otherwise. Moreover, they have not been completely commanding during this run, even as the wins have stacked up.
According to the data, on just two occasions has the team registered an xG notably superior than the other team. For a side that have put together ten consecutive victories, the Villans seem strangely fragile – but at the moment the fine lines are falling their way.
The Winning Formula
The prevailing tactic appears to be to trade blows with rivals and wait for Rogers to rescue them with some clinical strikes. This occurred against Leeds, it happened at West Ham, and once more versus Manchester United.
His opener stemmed from a superb shot, arced right inside the goal frame from a wide position. The follow-up goal was essentially a slight scruffier version of his first as he pounced on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
Is It Sustainable?
Logic says not. In the recent win, the opposition registered more shots and more shots on target. They have triumphed in eight consecutive games by just one goal. The defence has been breached in nearly all of those games.
A statistical correction may well be the most significant challenge they will encounter in the near future. The forward, almost certainly, will not continue to thrashing his shots past despairing goalkeepers forever.
Potential for Growth
Could it be another reality whereby, rather than results trending towards performances, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Vital cogs might still return to peak condition.
- The main striker may begin to finding the net regularly.
- Jadon Sancho might become the performer he showed during his peak.
- The defensive duo will eventually return from injury, fortifying a periodically leaky defensive unit.
This could contain the seeds of a title challenge, but they surely cannot keep relying on a single individual.
Savoring the Moment
But then, nobody expected this. It seemed improbable Villa would be in a Champions League place in December. And certainly earlier this season, nobody thought the young forward now would be leading a hunt for the title and appearing as an essential Three Lions star.
The current run is to be savoured exactly since it seems so surreal. As the hero stood in front of the home supporters when the game ended leading the celebrations, he appeared to be loving the experience. A feeling he has rightly earned. These runs of form are uncommon in the sport and should be relished.
